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AGRI-FOOD SECTOR OUTLOOK: IN A GLOBAL ECONOMY MARKED BY PROTECTIONIST TENSIONS, WHAT DOES THE FUTURE HOLD?
Central to the current trade tensions, notably between the USA and China, the global agri-food sector is impacted by knock on effects, notably via downward trends on the prices of key agri-food commodities, such as soybean. Coface has conducted an in-depth analysis of future trends in this market.
The Central and Eastern European region has seen an improvement in economic activity in recent years. In 2017 and 2018, GDP growth in the region rose to 4.6% and 4.3%, respectively, the highest rates since 2008.
This acceleration in the CEE economy was mainly due to the increase in domestic demand, in particular thanks to the significant fall in unemployment that benefited households. At the same time, households also benefited from strong wage growth, which had a direct impact on consumption. Beyond households’ consumption, growth was supported by an increase in public and private investment.
The aforementioned period of favourable macroeconomic environment brought effects on solvency of companies in the CEE region. GDP weighted average insolvencies dropped by 4.2% in 2018, contrary to an increase of proceedings recorded a year prior.
The international credit insurance company presents its eleventh annual study on the biggest 500 companies in Central and Eastern Europe – the Coface CEE Top 500. It ranks businesses by their turnover and additionally analyses further facts such as the number of employees, the framework of the companies, sectors and markets as well as the new Coface company credit assessments. The economic development of the CEE Top 500 is representative of the market trend in the entire region.Read More
Despite improving economic performances across the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), monetary and financial conditions remain tighter compared with before 2015. Access to financing remains one of the key issues for companies, particularly for small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Loan growth in the region has recovered somewhat thanks to higher oil prices, but it remains below its historical average.Read More
Coface’s 2019 Asia Corporate Payment Survey covered over 3,000 companies in nine economies (Australia, China, Hong Kong, India, Japan, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and Taiwan). 63% of companies surveyed stated that they experienced payment delays in 2018. The length of payment delays increased to 88 days on average in 2018, compared to 84 days in 2017. The length of payment delays was highest in China, Malaysia and Singapore; as well as the energy, construction and ICT sectors.Read More
While the yellow vests movement did have a strong impact on corporate insolvencies at the beginning of the year, the decline in mobilization and the resilience of economic growth had a positive impact on the health of French companies in March and April.Read More
Counterfeiting, e-commerce, Chinese consumers importance, even if it is generally relatively spared by recessions, the luxury market must adapt to a profoundly changing economy if it does not want to lose its exceptional status.Read More
The turnaround in the industrial cycle hits companies in the chemicals sector in Europe and North America
Signs of a slowing global economy continue to accumulate
2019 - the number of insolvencies will increase in two-thirds of countries (+3% in Western Europe)
The chemical industry in Europe and North America is suffering from fewer opportunities in the automotive sector
Improvements in assessments are concentrated in the Middle East, including Saudi Arabia's upgrade (B)
COFACE STRENGTHENS ITS MARKET POSITION IN THE ADRIATIC REGION BY ACQUIRING SID - PKZ, THE LEADING CREDIT INSURANCE COMPANY IN SLOVENIA
Coface announces today the acquisition of SID - PKZ, the market leader in credit insurance in Slovenia with a high market share. As Coface has acquired all SID - PKZ shares, the business will operate under the new brand name Coface PKZ. The acquisition supports Coface’s strategy of profitable growth in Central & Eastern Europe region.Read More
When Narendra Modi ran for Prime Minister in 2014, he pledged to boost the competitiveness of India’s industrial sector to promote growth. Modi will be running for president again in India’s general elections between 11 April and 19 May. The economy is in a better position than it was in 2014, but many of the structural fragilities that Modi inherited continue to afflict India today and a mixed track record in terms of economic reforms has dampened enthusiasm for Modi.Read More
• 2019 will be marked by high volatility in the global oil market
• Brent crude oil price to average USD 65 in 2019, according to Coface estimates
• In Mexico, the financial stress already faced by Pemex might not be contained
• Brazil oil policy is expected to have positive knock-on effect in the medium term
2018 proved to be a relatively challenging year for China. Growth slowed to 6.6% and is expected to decline further in 2019 (6.2%, according to Coface forecasts). As a result, 59% of the 1500 Chinese companies that participated in Coface’s survey believe the economy will not improve in 2019, the worst since 2003. The situation relating to payment delays also deteriorated. 62% of companies in China experienced payment delays in 2018, with 40% of respondents reporting that they recorded an increase in payment delays, much higher than the 29% registered in 2017.Read More
In 2018, Poland reached a peak in economic recovery with a GDP growth of 5.1%, the highest level of economic expansion since 2011.Despite this positive macroeconomic environment, payment delays appear to be standard practice on the Polish market. Nearly 99% of the Polish companies surveyed by Coface experience payment delays. Only one out of 100 companies reports receiving payments on time.Read More
• Stagflation becoming a reality, exports are a key-source of revenues for economy, especially in the automotive sector
• Exporters are flexible; government support is vital for exporters to gain new market shares
Turnover: €1,385m, up 4.6% at constant scope and FX
Net loss ratio at 45.1%, an improvement of 6.2ppts; annual net combined ratio at 79.6%
Net income (group share) of €122.3m; of which €24.1m in Q4-2018. Annualised RoATE at 7.7%
Solvency ratio estimated to have risen to ~169%, above target range (140%-160%)
Coface continues to actively manage its capital base
Two pitfalls for businesses in 2019: the economic downturn and political risks.
Coface will be sharing its vision of the major trends in the world economy in 2019 with businesses at its annual conference on country and sectoral risks.
Coface continues its innovation strategy expanding its online offer to Business Finder, an interactive online tool that helps clients to easily find new business partners. With this service, Coface enables its clients to select new target groups from the largest database in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) with 30 million companies.Read More
French companies in 2019: Rise in insolvencies but higher margins will allow cushioning the impact of slowing global trade
• After two years of improvement, insolvencies are on the rise and this trend should continue in 2019 (forecast of +0.8%)
• This uptrend mainly affects micro-enterprises with revenues of less than EUR 500,000
• The disappointing export performance of French companies is partly due to their choice to increase their margin rate
• This applies to most key export sectors: automotive, pharmaceuticals, aeronautics and agri-food
• But this recovery in margins would be an advantage to cushion the impact of slowing global trade in 2019
When considering risk in the Chinese economy, a lot of the discussion has focused on large State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) or large private conglomerates. However, headwinds impacting Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) should not be neglected. SMEs are scrambling to access financial resources to meet their working capital and long-term expansion needs, amidst a looming trade war with the United States and rapidly deteriorating financing conditions. Given their importance in the Chinese economy, it is likely that policymakers will take steps to prevent SMEs from becoming the weak link. Several measures could be helpful: prudent fiscal stimulus, a rational approach to regulating shadow banking, and a shift to more market-based interest rates so as to reward underwriting procedures that allocate adequate risk returns.Read More
Wind energy industry: production costs will increase under the influence of the trade war and the liquidity squeezeRead More
Halfway through its trade diversification process, the United Arab Emirates is yet to be integrated into international value chains
• Thanks to its strategic location, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) plays a central role in regional exports and re-exports, as demonstrated by its various economic and cooperation agreements with other countries.
• Further involvement in the Belt and Road Initiative represents both a risk and an opportunity for the UAE.
• However, the country is still only halfway through its diversification process, and is yet to be integrated in global value chains.
The net number of protectionist measures currently in place throughout the world is 2.5 times higher than in 2010. In most advanced economies (such as the US, Western Europe, Japan, Canada and Australia) and in many of the large emerging countries (Brazil, Argentina and India), the share of imports impacted by protectionist measures is higher than imports benefitting from favourable measures. Nevertheless, several South East Asian countries (such as Vietnam, the Philippines and Cambodia), as well as Russia and a number of Latin American countries (including Mexico, Columbia and Peru) are not following this trend.Read More
Some emerging economies become increasingly vulnerable
• Higher oil prices and continued capital outflows from emerging markets mark the third quarter of 2018
• A wave of sectorial downgrades in Turkey and Argentina
• Risks improve in Central Europe and the CIS
• Downgrades for Pakistan and Nicaragua, mainly due to political risks
The international credit insurance company Coface presents its tenth annual study on the biggest 500 companies in Central and Eastern Europe – the Coface CEE Top 500. It ranks the businesses by their turnover and additionally analyses further facts such as the number of employees, the framework of the companies, sectors and markets as well as the new Coface company credit assessments. The trend of the CEE Top 500 reflects developments in the region.Read More
In 2017, the Baltic States benefited from a rebound in external demand. All countries recorded a high growth rate of exports. However, the ongoing increase in household consumption and a revival of investments made domestic demand the main driving force of these economies. The results of the largest companies in the region underline this positive economic development. Overall turnover increased by 9.8%. Net profits likewise developed well, posting a rise of 25.3% for all top 50 companies.Read More
Private limited liability company UAB Coface Baltics Services is implementing a project “Development of employee competencies at UAB Coface Baltics Services” No 09.4.3-ESFA-T-846-01-0035 under the measure “Human resources Invest LT+”.Read More
Coface results for Q1-2017: Net income at €7.3m driven by an improvement in net loss ratio. Fit to Win progressing as planned.Read More
A survey on corporate credit risk management, to which 1,017 Chinese companies responded, reveals that corporate payments improved in 2016, with only 68% of the respondent companies experiencing overdue payments in 2016 (...)Read More
Country and sector risks worldwide - Business confidence is picking up again, despite persistent political riskRead More
RMB depreciation, capital flow measures and new monetary stance: What are the implications for Chinese corporates?Read More
“The second half of 2016 marks the beginning of the transformation of Coface. We delivered a net profit of €41.5m in the year, successfully closed the transfer of our French State export guarantees activity, and launched our 3-year strategic plan, Fit to Win, the (...)
Coface’s payment survey confirms that sales on credit are being extensively used by Polish companies. Although credit periods have become common practice, it does not mean that receivables are being paid on time.Read More
South Africa’s economy challenged by crises in agriculture and mining, amid fears of an investment downgradeRead More
After a series of shocks in 2015 and 2016, Turkey’s economy is coming to the end of its new “Tulip era”
Greater political uncertainty resulting from two parliamentary elections in 2015, drying global liquidity due to the US Federal Reserve’s rate hike process and the weaker Turkish lira, all contributed to dragging down growth.Read More
At the end of 2016, global sector trends remained mixed, including in the regions that until now have been relatively spared by the increase in risks. Over the whole year, across 12 sectors evaluated in six regions of the world, nearly half saw their assessments change. There were 23 downgrades for 10 upgrades.Read More
In the 2nd Quarter of 2016, seasonally adjusted activity decelerated to 1.5 %, down from 2.5% y/y reported in the previous period. Industry, which shrank by 1.5% q/q, was the main contributor to this weak result, due to the fall in oil production and challenges faced by manufacturing and construction industries. The services sector also slowed during the period, to a growth rate of 2.4% YoY, down from 3.4% for 1Q2016.Read More
Rising political risks in developed countries: the sword of Damocles hangs over Europe’s major economiesRead More
Fit to Win plan to transform Coface into the most agile global trade credit partner in the industry, while evolving to a more efficient capital modelRead More
Poland’s economy is slowing this year, although the growth rate will remain fair: 3.2% for 2016, following 3.6% in 2015.
Business is benefiting from positive macroeconomic conditions.
Insolvencies and restructuration proceedings fell by over 14%. Coface forecasts further improvements, with the number of proceedings falling in 2016 and 2017.
Several favourable factors are boosting the sector, including rising populations, increasing demand for processed food, higher per capita incomes and improved production capacities. Infrastructures, climate and government strategies are major influencers.Read More
Pharmaceutical companies in the United States face two opposing scenarios for their business: "optimistic" or "pessimistic”Read More
China’s economy grew by 6.9% in 2015, the slowest expansion pace in 25 years. Growth should continue to slow in 2016 and 2017, and will probably undershoot the government’s average annual growth target of 6.5% - as set out in the five-year plan for 2016-2020.Read More
Company insolvencies in central, eastern and northern Europe: Positive trends but the decline will be slower than in 2015 in some countriesRead More
Coface Insolvency Panorama for Central and Eastern Europe: Less business insolvencies due to favourable economic conditionsRead More
Noting a higher than expected increase in claims in emerging countries, Coface continues to adapt its risk management policy and foresees a net [...]Read More
Heavily impacted by the Chinese slowdown and the fall in commodity prices, sub-Saharan Africa posted its lowest level of growth since 2008. 15 countries, including several that have been severely impacted by cri-ses, show significant potential in terms of consumer spending. Two sectors offer medium-term opportunities: retail and ICTRead More
Infografics - Despite persistent crises, Sub-saharan Africa presents opportunities in the 2025 time-frameRead More
Forecast world growth for 2016 down by 0.2 points to 2.5%. The average level of global risk corresponds to B, « significant risk ». Increasing numbers of emerging markets included in the "extreme" and "very high" risk categories. Three leading world economies become fragile. China penalises activity in several Asian countries. Europe facing positive dynamics, but political risk driven by the Brexit must be monitored.Read More
Brazil is in the midst of a perfect storm. The enduring political crisis and deep economic recession, which led to the collapse of confidence indexes, have now been topped by an impeachment trial of President Dilma Rousseff (...)
Coface and Bpifrance today signed an agreement concluding the transfer of French state export guarantees management from Coface to Bpifrance, in line with the preliminary protocol agreed with the French state on 29 July 2015.Read More
The Registration Document of COFACE SA for 2015 (Document de référence 2015 in French) was filed with the French financial markets authority (Autorité des marchés financiers - AMF) on April 13th, 2016, and registered under the visa number R.16-020.Read More
Global growth at half-mast (2.7% projected by Coface for 2016), under the impact of the highly volatility financial markets and continuing low oil prices, is compromising the health of industries analysed by Coface. (...)Read More
After five years of sanctions, Iran is finally to rejoin the global community. The return of Iran should have an effect on international growth via the oil channel but, above all, will bring huge changes to Iran itself.
The greater export risks faced by German companies are hampering growth performance. As Germany has strong trading ties with the Emerging Market and Developing Economies group (EMs), it is highly exposed to the (...)
The Board of Directors of Coface announces the appointment of Xavier Durand as Chief Executive Officer
This appointment will become effective following the Board of Directors’ meeting to be held on 9 February to approve the accounts for fiscal year 2015. Jean-Marc Pillu will continue in his role as Chief Executive Officer of Coface until this date.Read More
Aimed at the evolving credit insurance needs of mid-market companies, Coface has modernised its flagship policy, renamed TradeLiner. The move follows on from the experience Coface gained through its first global non-payment protection offer introduced fifteen years ago and is based on its desire to work harder to help protect mid-sized companies operating in the real economy.Read More
We begin 2015 with robust results: the Group’s growth and profitability are satisfactory and demonstrate the steadfastness with which the Group is implementing its strategy in a still mixed economic environment. The weaknesses seen in certain sectors across the world are affecting companies’ financial solidity and are an invitation to remain watchful. The Group continues to accompany its customers through sound risk management, securing both their own results and those of Coface.Read More
Czech Republic under positive watch (A4)- economy benefits from good prospects in the car industry and household consumption
The Czech Republic is recovering from recessive effects as a result of debt crisis in the Eurozone. The economy regained momentum reaching solid growth of GDP by 2.0% in 2014 and even a higher growth of GDP by 2.5% is forecasted by Coface to be reached this year. The main driver of the Czech economy will be the export of passenger cars as well as the rising consumer consumption.Read More
We are pleased to publish full-year results in line with our expectations. Coface has once again demonstrated the pertinence of its profitable growth model this year. Our innovative product offering, appropriate distribution channels, extensive international presence and prudent risk management have all contributed to the significant improvement in our results.Read More
Coface continues to progress on a path of growth and profitability
· Turnover +1.8% at constant scope and exchange rates
· Client retention rate still high at 91.9% and new contracts production up +8%
Coface now offers customers a mobile application providing access anywhere and at any time to the essential features of Cofanet, its online platform for managing credit insurance contracts. The application will be available for download at the Apple App Store and Google Play Store.Read More
“Inflation, recession and decreasing exports” were the buzz words that characterised 2013 for companies in Central and Eastern Europe.
Worldwide economic growth picked up pace but left the CEE countries aside. The eurozone, the region’s major trading partner, remained in recession in 2013 and was the main reason for making the economic environment even more difficult for its neighbours.
Coface is publishing its second edition of the Baltic Top 50. The companies are ranked based on their turnover in 2013. Figures for 2013 show the continuing recovery of the Baltic states. The total turnover of the top players in the North increased by 2.2% to EUR 36.2 billion. Whereas net profits fell from 2011 to 2012, companies have now reported a sharp rise of 54.6%.Read More
(Vienna, Zagreb 2013) Coface launches credit insurance from the very first day of Croatia´s accession to the European Union on 1st of July 2013. For the worldwide credit insurance company it is not an unknown country: Since 1998 Coface has been active on this market by offering business information and debt collection services for Croatian and international customers.Read More
The CEE Top 500 is a joint project by the Coface branch offices in Central and Eastern Europe. This ranking covers the largest companies in the region – based on revenues for the 2010 calendar year – and was prepared in 2011 for the third time.Read More
From the start of 2011, in less than four months, the insurance premiums of business risk Management Company Coface Lithuania reached 1.9 million litas, i.e. nearly 78 per cent more than during the same period in 2010.Read More
Coface announces good turnover resistance, a turnaround in its profits and a new credit insurance approach
Support to the insured’s and the economy has resulted in a total guaranteed exposure that has been stable between the end of 2007 and the end of 2009, at €370 billion euros (the only major credit insurer to deliver such stability).Read More