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French companies in 2019: Rise in insolvencies but higher margins will allow cushioning the impact of slowing global trade

11/27/2018

• After two years of improvement, insolvencies are on the rise and this trend should continue in 2019 (forecast of +0.8%)
• This uptrend mainly affects micro-enterprises with revenues of less than EUR 500,000
• The disappointing export performance of French companies is partly due to their choice to increase their margin rate
• This applies to most key export sectors: automotive, pharmaceuticals, aeronautics and agri-food
• But this recovery in margins would be an advantage to cushion the impact of slowing global trade in 2019

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SMEs in China: Monetary easing won’t be sufficient to reduce credit pressure

11/19/2018

When considering risk in the Chinese economy, a lot of the discussion has focused on large State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) or large private conglomerates. However, headwinds impacting Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) should not be neglected. SMEs are scrambling to access financial resources to meet their working capital and long-term expansion needs, amidst a looming trade war with the United States and rapidly deteriorating financing conditions. Given their importance in the Chinese economy, it is likely that policymakers will take steps to prevent SMEs from becoming the weak link. Several measures could be helpful: prudent fiscal stimulus, a rational approach to regulating shadow banking, and a shift to more market-based interest rates so as to reward underwriting procedures that allocate adequate risk returns.

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US protectionism: Significant knock-on effect on trade partners of targeted countries

10/09/2018

The net number of protectionist measures currently in place throughout the world is 2.5 times higher than in 2010. In most advanced economies (such as the US, Western Europe, Japan, Canada and Australia) and in many of the large emerging countries (Brazil, Argentina and India), the share of imports impacted by protectionist measures is higher than imports benefitting from favourable measures. Nevertheless, several South East Asian countries (such as Vietnam, the Philippines and Cambodia), as well as Russia and a number of Latin American countries (including Mexico, Columbia and Peru) are not following this trend.

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Coface and Tradeshift announce strategic partnership

10/10/2018

Global credit insurer to make risk indicators available to a network of 1.5 million businesses in 190 countries.

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